What will the Ukrainian war look like in 2023? News. News headlines and events Last Minute Russia
Ukraine’s rebuffing of Russian forces appears to depend largely on how quickly America and Europe deliver appropriate aid to Kiev, such as long-range missiles, tanks and warplanes.
Russia also hopes to destroy the West’s alliance over Ukraine in order to gain momentum.
The American newspaper The Hill published an analytical report for the first year of the war.
“Last year, the allies underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated Russia,” a US administration official, who asked not to be identified, told the newspaper.
The same official said that the Western allies and the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group were indeed well prepared for the next counter-offensive, and noted that there was a consensus among these countries that a large amount of weapons should be delivered to Ukraine as soon as possible.
“The war exposed the helplessness of Russia”
Branislav Slanchev, professor of political science at the University of California, argues that the most important lesson to be learned from the first year of the war is the revelation that Russia is incapable of large-scale aggression.
Slanchev said: “Russia is not the Soviet Union. They can’t even fight the Soviet way. They cannot fight in any modern style of warfare. Their only hope is the failure and collapse of the West, and I don’t think that will happen.”
In fact, a lot of what happens in 2023 looks like it will depend on a Russian offensive to seize the Donbass in the east of the country. This may be Russia’s last chance to regain the initiative after being expelled from Kharkov and Kherson.
According to some estimates, Russia may continue the offensive operation until the summer, when its power will decrease.
Currently, the fighting is concentrated in the east in the area of Bakhmut. If Russia takes Bakhmut, Russian forces in Donetsk will have a foothold to attack Ukrainian-controlled Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
“Ukraine may have to leave Bakhmut”
Russian analyst Caroline Hurd of the Center for Military Studies says Ukraine may have to withdraw from Bakhmut.
Hurd believes that Bakhmut has no strategic value. Even if Moscow takes Bakhmut, there are Ukrainian positions further west that Russian troops must cross.
Russia’s strategy could be to attack and overwhelm Ukrainian positions while looking for weak spots in Donbas, which would be a tipping point.
Russia is also working hard to capture the coal-mining town of Ugledar. So Moscow can gain a foothold in Donetsk once again. But Russian forces have been losing casualties in the region for months.
“Kyiv’s most notable counterattack will be in Zaporozhye”
Tomasz Bliusevich is a historian of Europe and Russia at the Hoover Institution. Blusevich states that Kyiv’s most notable counterattack will be in the Zaporozhye region. Blusevich notes that the decommissioning of the bridge to the Crimea will be a serious blow to Russian supply routes.
According to Blusevich, Ukraine has a good option to launch an attack from Kherson.
It is commented that Ukraine will wait for the most suitable time to attack. Most likely, this will happen after Russian supply lines are paralyzed, and modern tanks and other heavy weapons come from the West.
“They will try to weaken the Russian supply chain, see where there is a gap, and increase pressure from there,” says Blusevich.
“If advanced weapons, including combat aircraft, quickly reach Kyiv, we can end the war this year”
Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser Yuriy Sak is confident that Ukraine will end the war this year, but emphasizes that advanced weapons systems, including combat aircraft, must be delivered to Kiev faster than in the first year.
Sak said: “We consider it possible to end the war in 2023. We must stop hesitating and believe that it is possible. When that happens, things will go very quickly,” he says.
“A truce is not in the interests of Ukraine”
Speaking to The Hill, a senior US official said the Biden administration does not believe a ceasefire is in Ukraine’s best interests. According to the official, if there is a ceasefire, Russia will regroup and return in 6 months or 1 year.
Experts believe that Ukraine’s support for America should not decrease.
The Ministry of Defense and defense enterprises are aware of the stock shortage of some ammunition and are increasing their production.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also says European allies are ramping up production.
“Stocks of weapons in Russia are running out”
According to various sources, Russian reserves are also declining. While it’s not clear how much the country’s stockpiles have dwindled, according to official statements, Moscow has turned its back on Iran over drones. The Russian mercenary group Wagner also buys rockets and artillery shells from North Korea.
If Russia does not receive support from China, it may not catch up with the level of production of the West. At present, America believes that Beijing is considering providing weapons to Moscow.
Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, believes the West is superior to the US in this regard.
“If I had to play with one of the Western or Russian industries, I would choose the West,” Jones said. “I think Russian industry will face a real problem if the West wants to keep supplying Ukraine for the war.”
However, the Council of Europe report on foreign relations says that Russian industry has proven its resilience. Moscow has increased the production of cruise missiles and can produce a tank faster than Western countries.
According to the newspaper commentary, the next stage of the war will be determined by the strength of the allies behind Ukraine, especially America. America is seen as the de facto leader of the Ukrainian defense coalition.
Poll shows 48 percent of Americans favor increased military support for Kyiv
According to an Associated Press-NORC poll, 48 percent of Americans are in favor of increasing arms support for Kyiv. Last spring, that figure was 60 percent.
In the lower house of Congress, the House of Representatives, far-right members of the Republican Party make it clear that they are against giving Kyiv billions of dollars.
Internal divisions in Western support for Ukraine may be exactly what Russia is hoping for.
But the Kremlin has its own problems. Sanctions and high inflation are testing Russia. Rising battlefield casualties this year could further damage the economy and complicate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military operations.
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine: “Ukraine can win the war if military support increases”
Former ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst of the Atlantic Council believes that Ukraine can win the war this year or in the near future if Western countries continue to provide armed support.
“You will see, Ukraine will regain most of the mainland, cut off supplies to Crimea,” Herbst said. “This will force Russian troops to withdraw to Crimea, and Putin will have serious supply problems,” he said.
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