Positive revision of forecasts for China from Goldman Sachs – WORLD

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The two biggest risks facing China’s economy, Covid-related restrictions and a sudden downturn in the real estate sector, are fueling optimism about a recovery in growth next year, forcing economists to improve some of their critical forecasts.Goldman Sachs said China’s gross domestic product growth will rebound in the second half of 2023 and early 2024 after the economy recovers from the initial negative effects of exiting the zero-Covid strategy in the spring. The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) also said on Wednesday it raised its growth forecast for next year to more than 5 percent. Morgan Stanley expects consumer spending to rise this week.

Changing Covid restrictions and support for the real estate sector have proven effective

Confidence in China’s outlook has been boosted after the Beijing administration loosened and re-imposed its Covid-19 control rules and introduced a comprehensive real estate financing package last week. Covid-19. “The last few days have brought unexpected good news,” Bloomberg chief economist Tom Orlik told the New Economic Forum. “The outlook for 2023 looks a little brighter than it did a few days ago.”

Forecasts revised upwards

The economy said it sees the risk of upping its growth forecasts for China, which stands at 3.5 percent this year and 5.7 percent in 2023. ANZ raised its growth forecast from 4.2 percent to 5.4 percent for next year. Morgan Stanley also announced that it expects private consumption to rise to 7% next year, which it predicts will be around 1.7% this year. at an annualized rate of just 2 percent in the second quarter, is projected to increase to 10 percent in the third quarter of next year.

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