MORNING STRATEGY – WORLD – Economy World Magazine

On the first trading day of the year, the US, UK, Chinese and Japanese markets were closed. On the other hand, other European markets were dominated by a positive outlook. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.6%. On the domestic market, the BIST-100 index showed strong dynamics on the first trading day of the new year. While the close was realized at 5661, a daily gain of 2.8% was recorded. The volume of the transaction also amounted to 114.2 billion Turkish liras. While 87 stocks were up in the BIST-100, the stocks that had the biggest impact on the index’s rise were listed as THYAO, TCELL and KOZAL. Looking at today, European futures are in the negative zone. US futures are slightly higher. On the Chinese side, PMI data for the manufacturing sector was monitored. In December, Caixin’s manufacturing PMI plummeted from 49.4 to 49.0. Asian markets are mixed. In addition, the traditional safe-haven gold and the Japanese yen are rising in price. An ounce of gold added 0.7% and the dollar lost 0.8% against the Japanese yen. Under these conditions, we expect BIST-100 to open the day with a small buyer. As for the data, we will be waiting for the December CPI and domestic producer price index today at 10:00 CET. The CPI is expected to increase by 2.2% m/m and 66.7% y/y. (2.9% in the previous month, 84.4% in the past year) In Turkey, President Erdogan’s speech in the program “Contract Workers’ Holiday” will also be watched at 14:00 in Ankara. Data on the consumer price index will also be announced abroad, in Germany. From the US, PMI data in the manufacturing sector will be published. Markets in Japan are still closed today due to the holiday.

MACROECONOMICS

The leading foreign trade deficit for December announced by the Department of Commerce was $10.4 billion, surpassing the 2022 average of $9.2 billion. occurred. It was noted that the monthly recovery in exports was more limited than the monthly increase in imports. Monthly growth was also observed in imports of energy products and gold, which determined the high levels of imports throughout 2022. Gold imports totaled US$3.1 billion, up from this year’s average of US$2 billion. Energy imports totaled $8.8 billion in December, higher than the 2022 average of $8.1 billion. In 2022, gold imports amounted to $23.5 billion, which was over $7.1 billion in 2021 and partly less than in 2020 ($26.6 billion), in which we saw high gold imports. Energy imports, which stood at $50.7 billion in 2021, increased to $97.1 billion in 2022. While exports were within the SSP target in 2022, imports remained slightly above the SSP target.

Source: Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Treasury and Finance.
S&P Global/ICI Turkey in December The manufacturing PMI jumped to 48.1 from 45.7, the highest level since June.However, the data remained below the 50th growth threshold for 10 months. Ultimately, while the slowdown continued, it showed that the pace was slowing down and raised hope that the manufacturing sector could recover as we enter 2023. While the decline in production and new orders slowed in December, there was the strongest increase in employment since February 2022. It was highlighted that inflationary pressures were much more moderate compared to 2022 as a whole.

Today Leading German CPI at 16, UK manufacturing PMI at 12:30pm and US manufacturing PMI at 5:45pm. will be accompanied.

• CPI in Germany in Novemberunder the influence of lower energy prices, it decreased by 0.5% per month and regressed a year later, while on an annualized basis it was 10%. In October, the annual consumer price index reached 10.4%, the highest level since December 1951. In December, the CPI is expected to fall by 0.7% m/m and slow to 9.1% y/y, mainly due to lower energy prices and support from the government, households and businesses in Germany to reduce energy consumption. accounts.
• in the USA According to preliminary data, in December manufacturing PMIdecreased from 47.7 to 46.2, indicating that the rate of decline in the manufacturing sector has increased.
• in England According to preliminary data, in December manufacturing PMI somewhat regressed, indicating an increase in the rate of contraction.

Today in the country December inflation data at 10 CET. will be accompanied.

• CPI in Novemberbelow market expectations by 3% increased by 2.88% per month, On an annualized basis, the CPI fell from 85.51% to 84.39%. On the other hand, PPI slowed down sharply with a monthly increase of 0.74% (previous month: 7.83%, average growth of 1.3% since 2003), supported by the decline in the energy item, and from 157.69% y/y calculus. It dropped to 136.02.
• We will see a significant effect of the base effect in the inflation data for the last month of the year. Due to the sharp decline from the base effect of 13.58% in December 2021, the CPI for December is expected to reach a median monthly level of 2.23% and decline to a median of 66.75% year-on-year, according to a Bloomberg review. In the MTP, the CPI forecast for the end of the year was 65%, while the CBR inflation forecast for the end of 2022 was 65.2%. Meanwhile, the first half of 2023 will also be a period when we will experience a strong base effect. The CBR inflation path indicates that the CPI could drop to the 30-40% range in the first half. We will start 2023 with a strong base of 11.1% in January 2022.

COMPANY’S NEWS

Aselsan (ASELS, limited positivity): The company has signed two contracts with Tusaş for the sale of avionics systems for end use by international customers, totaling $57.8 million. Under these contracts, deliveries will be made in 2024-2025.

Eczacıbaşı İlaç (ECILC, neutral): The Ordinary General Meeting on completion of the liquidation of December 20, 2022 was held regarding the termination of the liquidation procedures of the company Eczacıbaşı-Baxter Hastanesi Ürünleri Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş.

INDUSTRY NEWS

Istanbul Stock Exchange: As part of the Volatility Precautionary System (VBTS), which was put into operation in accordance with the decision of the Capital Markets Council ULAS.E shares will be traded using the single price method from transactions from 03/01/2023 (the beginning of the session) to transactions from 02/02/2023 (the end of the session). The measures that are currently being implemented in the respective denominator and defined in previous phases under the VBTS (prohibition of short selling and overdraft, gross clearing and order package measures) will also continue during the implementation of the single price transaction method measure.

Also under (VBTS) SAMAT.E shares will not be the subject of transactions for short selling and credit from transactions from 03/01/2023 (the beginning of the session) to transactions from 02/02/2023 (the end of the session).

Again under (VBTS) KGYO.E shares will be traded in a package of orders from transactions from 03/01/2023 (the beginning of the session) to transactions from 02/02/2023 (the end of the session). The order package measure covers the practice of “limiting the market order and the market to limit the entry of the order”, “prohibiting the cancellation of the order, reducing the price of the order by reducing the quantity of the order”, and “limiting the publication of information on the collection of the order”. The measures that are currently being implemented in the relevant denominator and identified in previous phases under the VBTS (prohibition of short selling and lending and gross clearing measures) will also continue during the implementation of order package measures.

Note. The measures provided by the VBTS are evaluated separately from the trading rules of the market/platform on which the shares are traded, trading principles applied due to market changes or for other reasons. Accordingly, the VBTS measures continue to apply until the end of the validity period, except for the duration of the transaction principles enacted by other provisions or decisions.

OTHER COMPANY NEWS

Ahlatchi Natural Gas (AHGAZ): The company decided to increase its current issued capital from 208 million TL to 2,600 million TL, this time exceeding the share capital ceiling of 750 million TL, with a bonus issue of 1150%.

Adese Gairimenkul (ADESE): In the RAP statement dated 12/15/2022, Asto Gairimenkul Tik. A.Ş. was completed and it was announced in the Turkish Commercial Register Gazette dated 01/02/2023 under number 10738.

Kervan Food (KRVGD): As a result of the purchase made on June 30, 2021, and the subsequent mandatory withdrawal, the targeted capital increase of ZPC Otmuchow SA, located in Poland, 65.5% of which was registered with the participation of Kervan Gida and 2 other partners, has been completed. After the capital increase, the company’s new paid-in capital amounted to PLN 6 million. The amount we paid ZPC Otmuchow SA for this capital increase is PLN 2.66 per share, which is a total of PLN 9.6 million (approximately TL 41 million). Accordingly, the share of participation in the company increased from 65.5% to 67.0%.

Brand Investment Holding (BRAND): The capital increase was made in the subsidiaries of the company on the basis of the meetings of the general meeting. Accordingly, the capital of Dünya Markalari Tekstil Aksesuar İç Ve Dış Ticaret A.Ş., which was 17.5 million Turkish Lira, was increased by 16.4 million Turkish Lira to 33.9 million Turkish Lira. The capital of TL 3.3 million was increased by TL 3.5 million. up to TL 4.8 million, En Garanti Turizm Seyahat Tekstil Gıda Gayrimenkul Danışmanlık Hizmetleri Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. The capital of TL 2.3 million was increased by TL 109 thousand to TL 2.4 million.

Netash Telecommunications (NETAS): The company has signed a new contract with Türk Telekom for the supply, installation, integration and maintenance/support of BNG (Broadband Network Gateway) software and hardware for use in the fixed Internet access network in the amount of USD 4 million.

Trabzon Port Authority (TLMAN): A contract for the construction of an open sea tug with a 24-meter bollard pull of 60 t/s and a conventional propeller system was signed between the company and Med Marine Pilotage and Tugboat Services for the amount of 4.3 million euros, and the estimated delivery time was determined as 31.12 . .2023. For the planned investments, an initial contribution of 860 thousand euros was made.

TsKB GYO (TsGYO): The main shareholder of Fındıklı office buildings in Istanbul province, Beyoglu district, which are in the company’s portfolio, is Türkiye Sınai Kalkınma Bankası A.Ş. (TsKB) and its subsidiaries; It was decided to lease it for 5 years, not lower than the rental prices indicated in the year-end valuation reports dated 12/29/2022, published on the Public Disclosure Platform. As part of the signed lease agreements, the initial lease date is 01.01.2023 and the annual rent for 2023 is TL 38.3 million + VAT for TSKB, Yatırım Finansman Menkul Degerler A.Ş. for 3 million TL + VAT.

INTERESTING MARKETS

The weighted average cost of financing fell from 9.04% to 9% on Monday. Yesterday, the CBRT opened a weekly repo auction in the amount of 1 billion Turkish lira (at 9%, maturity 7 days). The total funding amounted to 179 billion Turkish liras received from repo auctions.
In the domestic bond market, interest rates fell yesterday along the entire yield curve. In this context, there has been a daily decline approaching 55 basis points in the short term and a decline approaching 70 basis points in the medium and long term.
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