International Index Report – WORLD
International Index ReportEuropean stock markets, except for the UK, closed lower. While the DAX 30 was down 0.38% to 14,436.31 in Germany and the CAC 40 rose to 6,761.50 on a 0.22% depreciation in France, the FTSE 100 was up 0. .64% to 7,633.45 points in the UK. European stock markets closed lower, with the exception of the UK. While the DAX 30 was down 0.38% to 14,436.31 in Germany and the CAC 40 rose to 6,761.50 on a 0.22% depreciation in France, the FTSE 100 was up 0. .64% to 7,633.45 points in the UK. Especially Dax started the new year very quickly. However, we see that there is no history behind this rise. We can say that this increase will be fictitious if the upward trend in global bond yields and the dollar index accelerates, and the ECB continues to raise interest rates, as we expected. While the continued decline in oil prices since July has a positive impact on energy prices, the decline continues due to energy inflation and the base effect – Today will be released data on inflation in the Eurozone. While the CPI is expected to be 0.8% m/m, the CPI is expected to fall from 10.1% to 9.7% y/y. While core CPI is expected to fall -0.1% m/m, core CPI is expected to be 5.0% yoy. The Dow Jones was down -1.02% to 32,930.08, the S&P 500 was down -1.16% to 3,808.09 and the Nasdaq was down -1.47% to 10,305.24 . trailblazer employment data was realized as 235k, well above expectations, weekly jobless claims were announced at 204k. 230,000 people were waiting for unemployment claims. It can be said that employment in the US is still very strong. Services PMI data, one of the leading indicators of growth, was 44.7 points, slightly higher than expected, while the services sector has been declining for the past 6 months – Important US employment data will be released today. While non-farm employment is expected to reach 200,000, the unemployment rate is expected to remain constant at 3.7%. However, the latest employment figures in the US suggest that a strong employment structure remains, so the data could drop to either 3.7% or 3.6%. Perhaps the most important data today is the average hourly earnings. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.4% per month, while average hourly earnings year on year will decrease from 5.1% to 5.0%. The average hourly wage is quite high compared to the pre-pandemic period, but we already expected that the reflection of inflation would be visible in the average hourly wage, namely wages. We reiterate that we expect an inflationary structure that will not easily sustain a permanent decline if high wages put demand-side pressure on inflation and if this is combined with high employment. In this case, deep selling in anti-dollar currencies, gold, silver, cryptocurrencies and stock markets can be expected, while the upward trend of the dollar index and US 10-year bond yields will intensify. If the data is lower than expected, the opposite may happen. In other words, while the dollar index and US 10-year bond rates may decline, buying may intensify in anti-dollar currencies, gold, silver, cryptocurrencies, and stock markets. DAX: From a technical point of view, an index is a complex structure. We think the buying will end until the 14654 resistance is broken, but we don’t think a full selling trend will start unless the 14211 support is broken. , and then to the level of 14,754. On the other hand, below the support of 14,461, decreases to 14,350 are possible, and then to the support of 14,211. . DOW JONES: From a technical standpoint, there is strong selling pressure in the index. This selling pressure may continue until the level of 33.600 is broken. If this level is broken, purchases may again come to the fore, if the level of 33.200 is broken above, an increase to 33.463 and then 33.600 is possible, on the other hand, below the support of 32986, decreases to 32.800 and then support 32.423 are possible. SP500 From a technical point of view, the selling pressure in the index is strong. Until the level of 3904 is broken, this pressure from sellers may continue. If this level is broken, buying may again come to the fore, if it is broken above the level of 3849, an increase to the level of 3871, and then to the level of 3904 is possible. Below the level of support of 3822, a decrease to the level of 3787, and then support of 3720 is possible. Technically NASDAQ speaking, selling pressure strongly in the index. This pressure from sellers may continue until the level of 11,196 is broken. When this level is broken, purchases may again come to the fore; if the level of 10.912 is broken above, a rise first to 11,045 and then to 11,196 is possible. Below support at 10,775 may first drop support at 10,658, and then at 10,412.
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