In the US, inflation data will be on the agenda – WORLD

Inflation data will be on the agenda in the USFollowing the Fed’s interest rate decision last month, the minutes of the meeting were released this week.Following the Fed’s interest rate decision last month, the minutes of the meeting were released this week. While the minutes contained messages that the Fed would continue raising interest rates in 2023, there were warnings that unnecessary easing in interest rates would harm its efforts to maintain price stability. , we view the Fed’s cautious stance as positive. Because after the inflation side withdrew in April 2022, the Fed had to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, which it said was not on the table after dovish rhetoric, due to failure to follow verbal directions, which is one from things. it’s the best. If you look at the reaction of the market after the protocol, the market reacted positively to this situation, although reports of further interest rate increases were perceived as hawkish. So much so that the Fed’s cautious stance saw the VIX and the dollar index lower. Markets focused on today’s TDI data ahead of the US CPI data next week. Because, together with a strong employment stance, the pullback from inflation could be limited in the future, depending on domestic demand. This month, we expect the pullback from inflation to continue due to the US base effect. With inflation likely to come in below expectations, we could see a dovish reaction to the Fed’s rate hike on February 1st. With interest rate hikes by the Fed, the markets are also factoring in the possibility that the US could enter a recession in 2023. While the US economy grew in the third quarter, recession expectations prevail in the first half of the year with continued interest rate hikes. In the second half of the year, we think that the Fed’s dovish policy may come to the fore, not inflation, but the likelihood that there will be no room for raising interest rates.