How does the war in Ukraine affect US plans for China? News. News headlines and events Last Minute Russia
According to an analytical report published by the American news agency Associated Press, the United States is not only supporting an ally in the war in Ukraine, but also learning lessons for a possible conflict with China in the future.
China remains the biggest problem for the US. US military officials believe Beijing aims to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The United States is the main ally and supplier of defense weapons to democratically ruled Taiwan.
The geography of Ukraine and Taiwan and the US commitment to supporting the defense of Taiwan differ from their position in Ukraine.
Despite this, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report last month saying there are clear parallels between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan.
“The Ukrainian model cannot be repeated in Taiwan”
The Ukrainian model is unlikely to be replicated in Taiwan, as China could isolate Taiwan for weeks or even months, according to CSIS, an unbiased political research and think tank. According to the report, “Taiwan should go to war when it has everything it needs.”
U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said Ukraine would learn a lesson, saying the approach in Ukraine is a more “cold start” than the planned approach studied for Taiwan.
Hicks told the Associated Press (AP) that the most difficult military operation was the amphibious landing (with vehicles that can travel both on land and water). He noted that this would also complicate the supply process, especially if China cut off access to the ocean.
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The war in Ukraine has shown that the US and Europe are unprepared for a major conventional conflict and has put strong pressure on defense stocks.
Mark Kanchian, senior adviser to the CSIS International Security Program, author of the Taiwan report, pointed to shortcomings in both stocks and production capacity for some items, noting that this situation could escalate into a crisis in several places, especially with regard to artillery ammunition. .
Ukraine fires 7,000 rounds a day in self-defense and relies on a US promise to deliver new munitions every two weeks.
Since the Russian invasion, the United States has sent Ukraine millions of shells and ammunition, including small arms and artillery shells, 8,500 Javelin anti-tank systems, 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, and 100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition.
One of the biggest pressure points in the stockpile is said to be 155mm howitzer ammunition. According to the Pentagon, the United States sent 160 howitzers and more than 1 million howitzer shells to Ukraine, which are actively used, firing up to 3,000 shells a day.
“The US is fighting a different war in Ukraine than it is likely to face China”
Army official Doug Bush said the United States is fighting a different war in Ukraine than the war in China.
He emphasized that the US would likely use much more air and naval forces in a possible military conflict with China in the future, which would take some of the pressure off land-based systems and munitions.
However, Bush noted that the Allies would still need to support ground systems and munitions.
According to the Pentagon’s defense strategy, the United States must be able to maintain its deterrence while waging war on another. But the current supply chain has shown that this may not be the case.
Hicks said arms shipments to Ukraine have not slowed down U.S. support for Taiwan, but he noted that the same problems Ukrainian munitions have faced, such as limited parts or performance issues, will apply to many of the military sales promised to Taiwan.
Hicks said the US is preparing a presidential mandate for Taiwan that would allow it to supply weapons from its own stockpiles rather than making new contracts.
The military is seeking congressional approval for long-term contracts. As such, companies will be investing to meet long-term needs for Javelin missiles, High-Level Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) and 155mm munitions.
The military plans to increase production lines for 155mm guns, including key components such as outer metal jackets, chargers, fuzes and explosives. Currently, all production is carried out at the facility in Iowa.
Resupplying 155mm, Javelin and Stinger ammunition could take five years or more, according to CSIS, and all of this will take time.
In Europe, they say that there is no more equipment in warehouses that can be sent to Ukraine, and many allied countries are trying to sign new contracts with industry to replenish their stocks.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned this week in Brussels that it could take two and a half years for some new orders to arrive, especially for larger caliber ammunition such as ground artillery.
New façade: Space
While the Ukrainian war is often seen as a throwback to 20th-century land warfare involving tanks and artillery, he taught lessons on how valuable space technology has become for intelligence, communications, and propaganda.
Before the war, satellite imagery showed Russian troops stationed along the border, disproving claims that Russia was merely conducting military exercises.
As troops crossed the border, Ukrainian citizens provided real-time images and videos from their smartphones to expose Russian military positions, record confessions of captured Russian troops, and announce defeats and deaths of Russian military personnel.
When base stations and electricity went out in Ukraine, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk provided support by sending hundreds of Starlink terminals to Kyiv.
U.S. space experts are also considering expanding satellite communications based on Starlink advances. Starlink is currently the main commercial link in orbit, but more will be added.
Starlink has thousands of satellites orbiting the Earth in a ring at the same low altitude.
In a potential conflict, if a satellite is attacked, it will quickly be replaced by another satellite in orbit behind it.
Preparing for a cyberattack
While satellites and their transmissions must be protected, ground stations that process and transmit information are also vulnerable.
A software attack on the Ukrainian Viasat satellite communications network during the Russian invasion disabled tens of thousands of modems.
Although Viasat did not disclose who was responsible for the attack, Ukraine blamed Russian hackers.
Hal Brands of the American Enterprise Institute said China is also likely to use cyber warfare to stop Taiwan from sending messages showing its resistance to any attack.
The US Space Force is also paying attention to this issue.
“If we don’t cyber-secure our networks in the field, they’ll remain vulnerable and satellites won’t be able to propagate information,” said Chance Saltzman, head of space operations.
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